Oscar Predictions: Golden Globes Set the Table for Rami Malek and Glenn Close

-January 7, 2019

OSCAR CIRCUIT: The Golden Globes handed out their awards on Sunday night, where Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book” emerged the big winner, taking home three prizes for Picture (Comedy or Musical), Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali, and Screenplay. On the Drama side, “Bohemian Rhapsody” upset big contenders like “A Star is Born” and “BlacKkKlansman” for the top prize. What did we learn from last night’s ceremony and how does it affect the Oscar race when voters just received their ballots?

Looking at the acting races, we have fluidity in three out of the four races it seems.

In Lead Actor, after his touching speech, Rami Malek has lept in front of competitors Bradley Cooper and Christian Bale. Watching him accept his first Golden Globe for his portrayal as Queen lead singer Freddie Mercury, he seem to hawk back to Eddie Redmayne’s win for “The Theory of Everything,” one that many dismissed before he went on to win SAG and BAFTA. Redmayne ended up edging out presumed frontrunner Michael Keaton for the Oscar, even when Keaton’s film “Birdman” was winning Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay.

In the Supporting Actor race, Mahershala Ali could be on his way to his second Academy Award in just three years following his win for “Moonlight” in 2013. Ali would make history becoming just the second black actor to win multiple Academy Awards (the first being Denzel Washington for “Glory” and “Training Day”). That statistic is going to be difficult to get over, and it isn’t for the reasons you think.

Sam Elliott, a veteran actor with dozens of strong works under his belt, is in the thick of the race but wasn’t nominated at the Globes for his work in “A Star is Born.” After missing the cut several times in his career, most notably and recently for “Grandma” in 2015, his time in the spotlight may be upon us. Competitors Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?“) and Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”) are looking solid enough for nominations but either have an issue with their films not performing as strong as they need to or just not having enough of that “extra oomph” to get them over the competition.

With the announcement of today’s Art Directors (ADG), Writers Guild (WGA), and ACE Eddies (ACE), and the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) only one film remains as being nominated at every major guild announcement thus far in the awards season: Bradley Cooper’s “A Star is Born.” Does that mean its the presumptive winner? Definitely not, especially given its sole Original Song win at the Globes, but some of its competitors’ misses are worth examining:
“Green Book” – missed SAG Ensemble, ASC and ADG
Roma” – missed SAG Ensemble and Globes (ineligible for the top award due to a foreign language)
“Black Panther” – missed ACE and ASC
“BlacKkKlansman” – missed ADG and ASC
The Favourite” – missed SAG Ensemble

Adding “A Star is Born” to that list above, if you are casual awards fan or a hardcore awards pundit, that has to be your Top 6, in whatever order you so choose.

Statistics always come into play when we start talking about Oscar winners. The SAG Ensemble statistic was something that held on for over two decades. Except for “Braveheart” (the first year of SAG ensemble award) and last year’s Best Picture winner “The Shape of Water,” no film has been able to win Oscar’s top prize without the corresponding nomination. With the stat officially broken, pundits and analysts seem too quick to eliminate its importance.

Enter the point that Regina King was snubbed at SAG for “If Beale Street Could Talk,” and won the Golden Globe last night, officially remounting her claim as the frontrunner for the Supporting Actress prize. The actors’ branch is the largest in the Academy, and the one that matters when you’re chasing a Best Picture win. King, who has dominated the precursors this year, seemed like an assured winner until she was shockingly omitted from the SAG lineup in favor of surprise nominees Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place“) and Margot Robbie (“Mary Queen of Scots“). With Critics Choice looking set to go that way as well this upcoming weekend, the only other televised award show King will have leading up to the Dolby Theatre is BAFTA, a group that can be hard to crack, especially for African-American performers.

And then we have Best Actress. I’ve been on record for a few months now that this all seemed like the year Glenn Close was going to win her long-overdue Academy Award for “The Wife.” With six prior nominations under her belt, the veteran actress has never won an Oscar, and just Sunday night, won her first Globe award for a film. Her speech, which was deeply moving, was one of the finest connective tissue between an actress and a character I’ve seen in my years covering the awards season. If the HFPA, a group that is heavily known as celebrity chasers, passed on the chance to reward Lady Gaga with an acting prize, I don’t see how Close loses in February. Add the fact that Gaga is already deemed an assured winner on the night in Original Song; there’s no real need to double down on her lovefest.

As we look onward, Critics Choice will be next to have its say on the season (full disclosure: I am an active voting member). My colleagues can make some inspired choices from time-to-time (i.e., Philip Seymour Hoffman in “The Master” or Natalie Portman in “Jackie”) but they can often feel lock-step with Oscar. With this season as wide open as it is, I wonder if Malek emerges victorious once again or if any of the Supporting Actor nominees stand a chance against Richard E. Grant? If there is a place for Gaga to bounce back, Critics Choice is it. If the tide is about to turn away from Glenn Close, watch out for Olivia Colman(“The Favourite”) to give another inspired, funny speech for the world.

It should also be noted; Critics Choice is the last award show that will present before Oscar ballots are due on Jan. 14.

Down below, you can find the latest Oscar Predictions listed, but if you want the full ranking, go on over to The Circuit Hub to see the rankings of the contenders and where they stand.

**Editorial note: “Roma” will be included among the Production Design nominees but because of our internal system and how it updates, it won’t be seen until next Monday.

Updated: 1/7/2019

“Bohemian Rhapsody” (20th Century Fox)
Jim Beach, Robert DeNiro, Graham King, Brian May, Peter Oberth
“BlacKkKlansman” (Focus Features)
Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele, Shaun Redick
“Black Panther” (Marvel)
Kevin Feige
“The Favourite” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
“Green Book” (Universal Pictures)
Jim Burke, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Charles B. Wessler
“If Beale Street Could Talk” (Annapurna Pictures)
Megan Ellison, Dede Gardner, Barry Jenkins, Jeremy Kleiner, Adele Romanski
“Roma” (Netflix)
Nicolás Celis, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez
“A Star is Born” (Warner Bros.)
Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber, Lynette Howell Taylor, Jon Peters, Todd Phillips
“Vice” (Annapurna Pictures)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay, Kevin Messick

Bradley Cooper (“A Star is Born”)
Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”)
Peter Farrelly (“Green Book”)
Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”)
Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”)

Christian Bale (“Vice”)
Bradley Cooper (“A Star is Born”)
Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”)
John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”)

Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”)
Emily Blunt (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
Glenn Close (“The Wife”)
Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”)
Lady Gaga (“A Star is Born”)

Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)
Timothée Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”)
Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”)
Sam Elliott (“A Star is Born”)
Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)

Nicole Kidman (“Boy Erased”)
Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
Margot Robbie (“Mary Queen of Scots”)
Emma Stone (“The Favourite”)
Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”)

“Eighth Grade” (Bo Burnham)
“The Favourite” (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
“Green Book” (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly)
“A Quiet Place” (Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, John Krasinski)
“Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón)

“BlacKkKlansman” (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)
“Black Panther” (Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole)
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)
“If Beale Street Could Talk” (Barry Jenkins)
“A Star is Born” (Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth)

“Incredibles 2” (Nicole Paradis Grindle, Brad Bird)
“Isle of Dogs” (Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales, Scott Rudin)
“Mirai” (Mamoru Hosoda)
“Ralph Breaks the Internet” (Phil Johnston, Rich Moore, Clark Spencer)
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman)

“Black Panther” (Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Aaron Haye, Anna Lynch-Robinson)
“The Favourite” (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton)
“Mary Poppins Returns” (John Myhre, Gordon Sim)
“Mary Queen of Scots” (James Merifield, Gina Cromwell)

“Cold War” (Lukasz Zal)
“The Favourite” (Robbie Ryan)
“First Man” (Linus Sandgren)
“Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón)
“A Star is Born” (Matthew Libatique)

“Black Panther” (Ruth E. Carter)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Julian Day)
“The Favourite” (Sandy Powell)
“Mary Poppins Returns” (Sandy Powell)
“Mary Queen of Scots” (Alexandra Byrne)

“BlacKkKlansman” (Barry Alexander Brown)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (John Ottman)
“Green Book” (Patrick J. Don Vito)
“A Star is Born” (Jay Cassidy)
“Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough)

“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Jan Sewell, Charlie Hounslow-Smith, Rebecca Cole)
“Border” (Goran Lundstrom, Pamela Goldammer)
“Mary Queen of Scots” (Jenny Shircore)

“Black Panther” (Steve Boeddecker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (John Casali, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin)
“First Man” (Mary H. Ellis, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee)
“Roma” (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García)
“A Star is Born” (Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder)

“Black Panther” (Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker)
“First Man” (Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan)
“A Quiet Place” (Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl)
“Roma” (Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay)
“Ready Player One” (Gary Rydstrom, Richard Hymns)

“Avengers: Infinity War” (Dan Deleeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick)
“First Man” (Paul Lambert, J.D. Schwalm, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles)
“Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom” (David Vickery, Alex Wuttke, Paul Corbould, Neal Scanlan)
“Ready Player One” (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew Butler, David Shirk)
“Solo: A Star Wars Story” (TBD)

“BlacKkKlansman” (Terence Blanchard)
“First Man” (Justin Hurwitz)
“If Beale Street Could Talk” (Nicholas Britell)
“Isle of Dogs” (Alexandre Desplat)
“Mary Poppins Returns” (Marc Shaiman)

“All the Stars” from “Black Panther” (Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, Mark Spears, Solana Rowe, Al Schuckburgh)
“Revelation” from “Boy Erased” (Jon Thor Birgisson, Troye Sivan, Brett McLaughlin)
“Girl In The Movies” from “Dumplin’” (Dolly Parton, Linda Perry)
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” (Diane Warren)
“Shallow” from “A Star is Born” (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)

“Hale County This Morning, This Evening” (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim)
“Minding the Gap” (Bing Liu, Diane Quon)
“Shirkers” (Sandi Tan)
“Three Identical Strangers” (Tim Wardle)
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” (Morgan Neville)

“Burning” (SOUTH KOREA)
“Capernaum” (LEBANON)
“Cold War” (POLAND)
“The Guilty” (DENMARK)
“Roma” (MEXICO)

“Animal Behaviour“
“Bird Karma“
“Late Afternoon“
“Pépé le Morse“

“End Game“
“My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes“
“Period. End of Sentence“

“May Day“

“A Star is Born” – 10
“The Favourite” – 9
“Roma” – 9
“BlacKkKlansman” – 7
“Black Panther” – 7
“Bohemian Rhapsody” – 7
Be Sure To Check Out Our Official Oscar Predictions Page To See Where The Contenders Rank!

Clayton Davis is the esteemed Editor and Owner of AwardsCircuit.com. Born in Bronx, NY to a Puerto Rican mother and Black father, he’s been criticizing film and television for over a decade. Clayton is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to the awards season, the Critics Choice Awards. He also founded the Latino Entertainment Journalists Association, the first Latino-based critics’ organization in the United States. He’s also an active member of the African-American Film Critics Association, New York Film Critics Online, International Press Academy, Black Reel Awards, and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association. Clayton has been quoted and appeared in various outlets that include The New York Times, CNN.com, Variety, Deadline, Los Angeles Times, FOX 5, Bloomberg Television, AOL, Huffington Post, Bloomberg Radio, The Wrap, Slash Film, and the Hollywood Reporter.